CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-05-22T09:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-05-22T09:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16938/-1
CME Note: Source is eruption from AR 2824 at 06:15Z, with dimming towards the S of the AR. Material moving after 06:45Z to the W from AR. In STA Cor2 it is seen as two CMEs, NW one at 08:23 and SW one at 09:38 (the later might be associated with a C-class flare at 06:45Z). The CMEs are seen as one in SOHO/LASCO C2/C3. CME ARRIVAL: Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: signatures of flux rope(s) between 05/26 ~ 18 hrs to 05/27 ~ 5:00 hrs, but it may be either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. First rotation Bz north for ~3 hrs starting after ~18 hr and then ~19 hrs another structure with SN rotation in Bz. The second one displays low solar wind temperature more consistent with the magnetic cloud/flux rope expected signatures. Note that bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression, so it seems that there is interaction.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-26T11:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-25T22:07Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 66.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.66667
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -38.12 hour(s)
Difference: 13.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2021-05-28T01:44Z
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